1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ
xG Home
1.07
xG Away
1.76
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
BTTS
54%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Aston Villa an expected 1.1 goals and Manchester City an expected 1.8 goals. Aston Villa have a 23% win probability, draw stands at 23%, and Manchester City at 54%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 54%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11.1%
0:1
10.4%
1:2
9.8%
0:2
9.2%
1:0
6.3%
0:0
5.9%
2:1
5.9%
1:3
5.7%
0:3
5.4%
2:2
5.2%
2:0
3.4%
2:3
3.1%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Manchester City Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 54% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.85 |
| Market Odds | 1.97 |
Team Comparison
| Aston Villa | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | League Position | 2 |
| 65 | Points | 78 |
| 50% | Win % | 61% |
| 1.47 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.03 |
| 1.29 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.92 |
Venue Form
Aston Villa at Home
W3
D0
L2
(5 games)
Manchester City Away
W3
D1
L1
(5 games)
Recent Form
Aston Villa
W
L
W
L
W
Manchester City
L
W
D
W
W
