1
12%
Home Win
8.35
X
16%
Draw
6.11
2
72%
Away Win
1.4
xG Home
0.94
xG Away
2.52
Over 2.5 Goals
67%
BTTS
56%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Estoril an expected 0.9 goals and Benfica an expected 2.5 goals. Estoril have a 12% win probability, draw stands at 16%, and Benfica at 72%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–2. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 67%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:2
10%
1:2
9.4%
0:3
8.4%
0:1
7.9%
1:3
7.9%
1:1
7.5%
0:4
5.3%
1:4
5%
2:2
4.4%
2:3
3.7%
2:1
3.5%
0:0
3.1%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Benfica Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 72% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.39 |
| Market Odds | 1.48 |
Team Comparison
| Estoril | Benfica | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | League Position | 3 |
| 39 | Points | 80 |
| 29% | Win % | 68% |
| 1.59 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.18 |
| 1.68 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.74 |
Venue Form
Estoril at Home
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Benfica Away
W2
D1
L0
(3 games)
Recent Form
Estoril
D
L
Benfica
W
D
W
