1
48%
Home Win
2.1
X
25%
Draw
4.05
2
28%
Away Win
3.62
xG Home
1.61
xG Away
1.16
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS
55%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Chelsea an expected 1.6 goals and Nottingham Forest an expected 1.2 goals. Chelsea have a 48% win probability, draw stands at 25%, and Nottingham Forest at 28%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 52%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11.7%
1:0
10.1%
2:1
9.4%
2:0
8.1%
0:1
7.3%
1:2
6.8%
0:0
6.2%
2:2
5.5%
3:1
5%
3:0
4.3%
0:2
4.2%
3:2
2.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Chelsea Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 48% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.08 |
| Market Odds | 2.22 |
Team Comparison
| Chelsea | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | League Position | 16 |
| 52 | Points | 44 |
| 37% | Win % | 29% |
| 1.53 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.26 |
| 1.37 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.34 |
Venue Form
Chelsea at Home
W1
D0
L2
(3 games)
Nottingham Forest Away
W2
D0
L0
(2 games)
Recent Form
Chelsea
L
L
W
Nottingham Forest
W
W
Head to Head
Chelsea
1 : 3
Nottingham Forest
L
Nottingham Forest
0 : 3
Chelsea
W
Nottingham Forest
0 : 1
Chelsea
W
