1
42%
Home Win
2.41
X
26%
Draw
3.9
2
33%
Away Win
3.05
xG Home
1.45
xG Away
1.26
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS
55%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Chelsea an expected 1.5 goals and Brighton an expected 1.3 goals. Chelsea have a 42% win probability, draw stands at 26%, and Brighton at 33%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 51%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.1%
1:0
9.6%
2:1
8.8%
0:1
8.4%
1:2
7.7%
2:0
7%
0:0
6.6%
2:2
5.6%
0:2
5.3%
3:1
4.3%
3:0
3.4%
1:3
3.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Chelsea Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 42% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.38 |
| Market Odds | 2.53 |
Team Comparison
| Chelsea | Brighton | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | League Position | 8 |
| 52 | Points | 53 |
| 37% | Win % | 37% |
| 1.53 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.37 |
| 1.37 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.21 |
Venue Form
Chelsea at Home
W1
D0
L2
(3 games)
Brighton Away
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Chelsea
L
L
W
Brighton
L
D
W
