1
5%
Home Win
19.96
X
15%
Draw
6.69
2
80%
Away Win
1.25
xG Home
0.39
xG Away
2.25
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
BTTS
29%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Casa Pia AC an expected 0.4 goals and FC Porto an expected 2.2 goals. Casa Pia AC have a 5% win probability, draw stands at 15%, and FC Porto at 80%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–2. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 51%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:2
18.1%
0:1
16.1%
0:3
13.5%
0:4
7.6%
0:0
7.2%
1:2
7%
1:1
6.3%
1:3
5.3%
1:4
3%
1:0
2.8%
2:2
1.4%
2:1
1.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | FC Porto Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 80% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.25 |
| Market Odds | 1.33 |
Team Comparison
| Casa Pia AC | FC Porto | |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | League Position | 1 |
| 30 | Points | 88 |
| 18% | Win % | 82% |
| 0.91 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.94 |
| 1.68 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.53 |
Venue Form
Casa Pia AC at Home
W1
D1
L2
(4 games)
FC Porto Away
W1
D0
L2
(3 games)
Recent Form
Casa Pia AC
W
L
L
D
FC Porto
L
W
L
