1
47%
Home Win
2.14
X
30%
Draw
3.37
2
24%
Away Win
4.24
xG Home
1.23
xG Away
0.78
Over 2.5 Goals
33%
BTTS
39%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Cagliari an expected 1.2 goals and Lecce an expected 0.8 goals. Cagliari have a 47% win probability, draw stands at 30%, and Lecce at 24%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 67%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
16.4%
0:0
13.3%
1:1
12.9%
0:1
10.4%
2:0
10.1%
2:1
7.9%
1:2
5%
3:0
4.2%
0:2
4.1%
3:1
3.3%
2:2
3.1%
1:3
1.3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Cagliari Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 47% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.13 |
| Market Odds | 2.26 |
Team Comparison
| Cagliari | Lecce | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | League Position | 17 |
| 43 | Points | 38 |
| 29% | Win % | 26% |
| 1.05 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.74 |
| 1.39 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.32 |
Venue Form
Cagliari at Home
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Lecce Away
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Recent Form
Cagliari
L
W
Lecce
W
D