1
19%
Home Win
5.25
X
22%
Draw
4.63
2
59%
Away Win
1.68
xG Home
1.01
xG Away
1.96
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS
55%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Burnley an expected 1.0 goals and Aston Villa an expected 2.0 goals. Burnley have a 19% win probability, draw stands at 22%, and Aston Villa at 59%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 57%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
10.2%
0:1
10%
1:2
10%
0:2
9.8%
1:3
6.5%
0:3
6.4%
1:0
5.2%
2:1
5.1%
0:0
5.1%
2:2
5%
2:3
3.3%
1:4
3.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Aston Villa Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 59% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.69 |
| Market Odds | 1.8 |
Team Comparison
| Burnley | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| 19 | League Position | 4 |
| 22 | Points | 65 |
| 11% | Win % | 50% |
| 1 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.47 |
| 1.97 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.29 |
Venue Form
Burnley at Home
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Aston Villa Away
W0
D2
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Burnley
D
L
Aston Villa
D
D
L
Head to Head
Burnley
1 : 1
Aston Villa
D
Aston Villa
2 : 1
Burnley
L
Aston Villa
3 : 2
Burnley
L
