1
41%
Home Win
2.43
X
26%
Draw
3.8
2
33%
Away Win
3.08
xG Home
1.39
xG Away
1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
48%
BTTS
52%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Brighton an expected 1.4 goals and Aston Villa an expected 1.2 goals. Brighton have a 41% win probability, draw stands at 26%, and Aston Villa at 33%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 52%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.5%
1:0
10.4%
0:1
9%
2:1
8.7%
1:2
7.5%
0:0
7.5%
2:0
7.2%
0:2
5.4%
2:2
5.2%
3:1
4%
3:0
3.3%
1:3
3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Brighton Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 41% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.44 |
| Market Odds | 2.59 |
Team Comparison
| Brighton | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | League Position | 4 |
| 53 | Points | 65 |
| 37% | Win % | 50% |
| 1.37 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.47 |
| 1.21 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.29 |
Venue Form
Brighton at Home
W3
D0
L0
(3 games)
Aston Villa Away
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Brighton
W
W
W
Aston Villa
D
L