1
19%
Home Win
5.34
X
26%
Draw
3.86
2
55%
Away Win
1.81
xG Home
0.76
xG Away
1.52
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS
42%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Brighton an expected 0.8 goals and Arsenal an expected 1.5 goals. Brighton have a 19% win probability, draw stands at 26%, and Arsenal at 55%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 60%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:1
15.5%
1:1
11.8%
0:2
11.8%
0:0
10.2%
1:2
9%
1:0
7.8%
0:3
6%
1:3
4.6%
2:1
4.5%
2:2
3.4%
2:0
3%
0:4
2.3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Arsenal Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 55% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.82 |
| Market Odds | 1.93 |
Team Comparison
| Brighton | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | League Position | 1 |
| 53 | Points | 85 |
| 37% | Win % | 68% |
| 1.37 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.87 |
| 1.21 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.71 |
Venue Form
Brighton at Home
W3
D1
L0
(4 games)
Arsenal Away
W2
D0
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Brighton
D
W
W
W
Arsenal
W
W
L
