1
41%
Home Win
2.43
X
24%
Draw
4.1
2
35%
Away Win
2.9
xG Home
1.56
xG Away
1.41
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS
60%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Brentford an expected 1.6 goals and Chelsea an expected 1.4 goals. Brentford have a 41% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Chelsea at 35%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 57%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11.3%
2:1
8.8%
1:0
8%
1:2
8%
0:1
7.3%
2:0
6.3%
2:2
6.2%
0:0
5.2%
0:2
5.1%
3:1
4.6%
1:3
3.7%
3:0
3.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Brentford Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 41% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.44 |
| Market Odds | 2.59 |
Team Comparison
| Brentford | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | League Position | 10 |
| 53 | Points | 52 |
| 37% | Win % | 37% |
| 1.45 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.53 |
| 1.37 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.37 |
Venue Form
Brentford at Home
W2
D2
L0
(4 games)
Chelsea Away
W0
D1
L2
(3 games)
Recent Form
Brentford
D
W
D
W
Chelsea
L
D
L