1
57%
Home Win
1.74
X
24%
Draw
4.22
2
19%
Away Win
5.32
xG Home
1.72
xG Away
0.87
Over 2.5 Goals
48%
BTTS
48%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Botafogo an expected 1.7 goals and Santos an expected 0.9 goals. Botafogo have a 57% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Santos at 19%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 52%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
12.9%
1:1
11.2%
2:0
11.1%
2:1
9.7%
0:0
7.5%
0:1
6.5%
3:0
6.4%
3:1
5.5%
1:2
4.9%
2:2
4.2%
0:2
2.8%
4:0
2.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Botafogo Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 57% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.75 |
| Market Odds | 1.87 |
Team Comparison
| Botafogo | Santos | |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | League Position | 12 |
| 63 | Points | 47 |
| 45% | Win % | 32% |
| 1.53 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.18 |
| 1 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.32 |
Venue Form
Botafogo at Home
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Santos Away
W1
D2
L0
(3 games)
Recent Form
Botafogo
L
D
Santos
D
D
W
