1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ
xG Home
1.36
xG Away
1.52
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS
58%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives AZ Alkmaar an expected 1.4 goals and FC Twente an expected 1.5 goals. AZ Alkmaar have a 34% win probability, draw stands at 25%, and FC Twente at 41%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 55%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11.6%
1:2
8.8%
0:1
8.5%
2:1
7.9%
1:0
7.6%
0:2
6.4%
2:2
6%
0:0
5.6%
2:0
5.2%
1:3
4.5%
3:1
3.6%
0:3
3.3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | FC Twente Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 41% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.44 |
| Market Odds | 2.59 |
Team Comparison
| AZ Alkmaar | FC Twente | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | League Position | 4 |
| 52 | Points | 58 |
| 41% | Win % | 44% |
| 1.71 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.74 |
| 1.5 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.18 |
Venue Form
AZ Alkmaar at Home
W2
D1
L1
(4 games)
FC Twente Away
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar
L
W
D
W
FC Twente
W
D
