1
32%
Home Win
3.13
X
30%
Draw
3.36
2
38%
Away Win
2.61
xG Home
0.99
xG Away
1.12
Over 2.5 Goals
35%
BTTS
42%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Atletico-MG an expected 1.0 goals and Fluminense an expected 1.1 goals. Atletico-MG have a 32% win probability, draw stands at 30%, and Fluminense at 38%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 65%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:1
13.5%
1:1
13.4%
0:0
12.1%
1:0
12%
0:2
7.6%
1:2
7.5%
2:1
6.7%
2:0
6%
2:2
3.7%
0:3
2.8%
1:3
2.8%
3:1
2.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Fluminense Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 38% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.63 |
| Market Odds | 2.8 |
Team Comparison
| Atletico-MG | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | League Position | 5 |
| 48 | Points | 64 |
| 32% | Win % | 50% |
| 1.13 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.32 |
| 1.16 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.03 |
Venue Form
Atletico-MG at Home
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Fluminense Away
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Atletico-MG
D
L
W
Fluminense
L
W
