1
42%
Home Win
2.39
X
24%
Draw
4.17
2
34%
Away Win
2.92
xG Home
1.61
xG Away
1.44
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS
61%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Aston Villa an expected 1.6 goals and Liverpool an expected 1.4 goals. Aston Villa have a 42% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Liverpool at 34%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 59%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11%
2:1
8.8%
1:2
7.9%
1:0
7.6%
0:1
6.8%
2:2
6.4%
2:0
6.1%
0:2
4.9%
3:1
4.8%
0:0
4.7%
1:3
3.8%
3:2
3.4%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Aston Villa Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 42% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.38 |
| Market Odds | 2.53 |
Team Comparison
| Aston Villa | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | League Position | 5 |
| 65 | Points | 60 |
| 50% | Win % | 45% |
| 1.47 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.66 |
| 1.29 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.39 |
Venue Form
Aston Villa at Home
W2
D0
L1
(3 games)
Liverpool Away
W1
D0
L2
(3 games)
Recent Form
Aston Villa
W
L
W
Liverpool
L
L
W
Head to Head
Aston Villa
–
Liverpool
Liverpool
2 : 0
Aston Villa
L
Aston Villa
2 : 2
Liverpool
D
