1
19%
Home Win
5.29
X
25%
Draw
4.04
2
56%
Away Win
1.77
xG Home
0.82
xG Away
1.62
Over 2.5 Goals
44%
BTTS
45%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Aston Villa an expected 0.8 goals and Arsenal an expected 1.6 goals. Aston Villa have a 19% win probability, draw stands at 25%, and Arsenal at 56%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 56%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:1
14.1%
1:1
11.6%
0:2
11.4%
1:2
9.4%
0:0
8.7%
1:0
7.1%
0:3
6.2%
1:3
5.1%
2:1
4.8%
2:2
3.9%
2:0
2.9%
0:4
2.5%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Arsenal Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 56% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.79 |
| Market Odds | 1.9 |
Team Comparison
| Aston Villa | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | League Position | 1 |
| 65 | Points | 85 |
| 50% | Win % | 68% |
| 1.47 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.87 |
| 1.29 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.71 |
Venue Form
Aston Villa at Home
W2
D0
L1
(3 games)
Arsenal Away
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Aston Villa
W
L
W
Arsenal
W
L
