1
86%
Home Win
1.16
X
10%
Draw
9.92
2
4%
Away Win
26.53
xG Home
2.90
xG Away
0.48
Over 2.5 Goals
65%
BTTS
36%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Arsenal an expected 2.9 goals and Burnley an expected 0.5 goals. Arsenal have a 86% win probability, draw stands at 10%, and Burnley at 4%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 65%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:0
14.4%
3:0
13.9%
4:0
10%
1:0
9.9%
2:1
6.9%
3:1
6.6%
4:1
4.8%
1:1
4.7%
0:0
3.4%
2:2
1.6%
0:1
1.6%
3:2
1.6%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Arsenal Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 50% |
| Predicted Odds | 2 |
| Market Odds | 2.13 |
Team Comparison
| Arsenal | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 19 |
| 85 | Points | 22 |
| 68% | Win % | 11% |
| 1.87 | Avg Goals Scored | 1 |
| 0.71 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.97 |
Venue Form
Arsenal at Home
W4
D0
L1
(5 games)
Burnley Away
W0
D0
L3
(3 games)
Recent Form
Arsenal
W
W
W
W
L
Burnley
L
L
L
Head to Head
Burnley
0 : 2
Arsenal
W
Burnley
0 : 5
Arsenal
W
Arsenal
3 : 1
Burnley
L
