1
55%
Home Win
1.81
X
23%
Draw
4.33
2
22%
Away Win
4.65
xG Home
1.80
xG Away
1.03
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
BTTS
54%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Arouca an expected 1.8 goals and Tondela an expected 1.0 goals. Arouca have a 55% win probability, draw stands at 23%, and Tondela at 22%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 54%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
10.9%
1:0
10.6%
2:1
9.8%
2:0
9.5%
0:1
6.1%
3:1
5.9%
0:0
5.9%
3:0
5.7%
1:2
5.6%
2:2
5.1%
0:2
3.1%
3:2
3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Arouca Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 55% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.82 |
| Market Odds | 1.93 |
Team Comparison
| Arouca | Tondela | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | League Position | 17 |
| 42 | Points | 28 |
| 35% | Win % | 18% |
| 1.38 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.79 |
| 1.88 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.62 |
Venue Form
Arouca at Home
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Tondela Away
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Arouca
D
W
Tondela
W
D
L
