1
40%
Home Win
2.53
X
27%
Draw
3.77
2
34%
Away Win
2.95
xG Home
1.34
xG Away
1.22
Over 2.5 Goals
47%
BTTS
52%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Arouca an expected 1.3 goals and Santa Clara an expected 1.2 goals. Arouca have a 40% win probability, draw stands at 27%, and Santa Clara at 34%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 53%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.6%
1:0
10.3%
0:1
9.4%
2:1
8.5%
1:2
7.7%
0:0
7.7%
2:0
6.9%
0:2
5.8%
2:2
5.2%
3:1
3.8%
1:3
3.1%
3:0
3.1%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Arouca Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 40% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.5 |
| Market Odds | 2.66 |
Team Comparison
| Arouca | Santa Clara | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | League Position | 13 |
| 42 | Points | 36 |
| 35% | Win % | 26% |
| 1.38 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.94 |
| 1.88 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.21 |
Venue Form
Arouca at Home
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Santa Clara Away
W0
D2
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Arouca
D
W
Santa Clara
D
D
L
