Almere City vs De Graafschap Prediction

1 – 1
Most Likely Score
Wed, 06 May 2026 · Eredivisie
Open Match Centre
Score · Lineups · Live stats

1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ

xG Home 1.72
xG Away 1.27
Over 2.5 Goals 57%
BTTS 59%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives Almere City an expected 1.7 goals and De Graafschap an expected 1.3 goals. Almere City have a 48% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and De Graafschap at 28%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 57%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:1 11%
2:1 9.4%
1:0 8.7%
2:0 7.4%
1:2 7%
0:1 6.4%
2:2 6%
3:1 5.4%
0:0 5%
3:0 4.2%
0:2 4.1%
3:2 3.4%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick Almere City Win
Probability 48%
Predicted Odds 2.08
Market Odds 2.22

Venue Form

Almere City at Home
W1 D0 L0 (1 games)
100% win rate

Recent Form

Almere City
W

Head to Head

06 May 2026 Eerste Divisie
Almere City – De Graafschap
06 May 2026 Eredivisie
Almere City – De Graafschap
18 Jan 2026 Eerste Divisie
Almere City 2 : 0 De Graafschap
W