1
31%
Home Win
3.26
X
21%
Draw
4.76
2
48%
Away Win
2.07
xG Home
1.64
xG Away
2.09
Over 2.5 Goals
72%
BTTS
71%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Ajax an expected 1.6 goals and PSV Eindhoven an expected 2.1 goals. Ajax have a 31% win probability, draw stands at 21%, and PSV Eindhoven at 48%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–2. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 72%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:2
8.6%
1:1
8.2%
2:2
7%
2:1
6.8%
1:3
6%
0:2
5.2%
0:1
5%
2:3
4.9%
1:0
3.9%
3:2
3.9%
3:1
3.7%
0:3
3.6%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | PSV Eindhoven Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 48% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.08 |
| Market Odds | 2.22 |
Team Comparison
| Ajax | PSV Eindhoven | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | League Position | 1 |
| 56 | Points | 84 |
| 41% | Win % | 79% |
| 1.82 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.97 |
| 1.21 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.32 |
Venue Form
Ajax at Home
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
PSV Eindhoven Away
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Recent Form
Ajax
W
L
D
PSV Eindhoven
W
D
