1
65%
Home Win
1.54
X
24%
Draw
4.21
2
11%
Away Win
8.79
xG Home
1.63
xG Away
0.52
Over 2.5 Goals
36%
BTTS
33%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives AC Milan an expected 1.6 goals and Lecce an expected 0.5 goals. AC Milan have a 65% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Lecce at 11%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 64%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
19%
2:0
15.5%
0:0
11.6%
1:1
9.8%
3:0
8.5%
2:1
8%
0:1
6%
3:1
4.4%
4:0
3.5%
1:2
2.5%
2:2
2.1%
4:1
1.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | AC Milan Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 65% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.54 |
| Market Odds | 1.64 |
Team Comparison
| AC Milan | Lecce | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | League Position | 17 |
| 70 | Points | 38 |
| 53% | Win % | 26% |
| 1.39 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.74 |
| 0.92 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.32 |
Venue Form
AC Milan at Home
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Lecce Away
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
AC Milan
L
D
Lecce
L
W
D
