1
14%
Home Win
7.04
X
23%
Draw
4.36
2
63%
Away Win
1.59
xG Home
0.68
xG Away
1.74
Over 2.5 Goals
44%
BTTS
41%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Vitoria an expected 0.7 goals and Palmeiras an expected 1.7 goals. Vitoria have a 14% win probability, draw stands at 23%, and Palmeiras at 63%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 56%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:1
15.4%
0:2
13.4%
1:1
10.5%
1:2
9.2%
0:0
8.8%
0:3
7.8%
1:0
6%
1:3
5.3%
2:1
3.6%
0:4
3.4%
2:2
3.1%
1:4
2.3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Palmeiras Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 63% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.59 |
| Market Odds | 1.69 |
Team Comparison
| Vitoria | Palmeiras | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | League Position | 2 |
| 45 | Points | 76 |
| 29% | Win % | 61% |
| 0.92 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.74 |
| 1.37 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.87 |
Venue Form
Vitoria at Home
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Palmeiras Away
W2
D1
L0
(3 games)
Recent Form
Vitoria
W
D
Palmeiras
W
D
W
