1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ
xG Home
2.03
xG Away
0.59
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
BTTS
39%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Flamengo an expected 2.0 goals and Atletico-MG an expected 0.6 goals. Flamengo have a 71% win probability, draw stands at 19%, and Atletico-MG at 10%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 51%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:0
15%
1:0
14.7%
3:0
10.2%
2:1
8.8%
1:1
8.7%
0:0
7.2%
3:1
6%
4:0
5.2%
0:1
4.3%
4:1
3.1%
2:2
2.6%
1:2
2.6%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Flamengo Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 71% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.41 |
| Market Odds | 1.5 |
Team Comparison
| Flamengo | Atletico-MG | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 11 |
| 79 | Points | 48 |
| 61% | Win % | 32% |
| 2.05 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.13 |
| 0.71 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.16 |
Venue Form
Flamengo at Home
W2
D1
L0
(3 games)
Atletico-MG Away
W2
D1
L1
(4 games)
Recent Form
Flamengo
W
D
W
Atletico-MG
W
W
L
D
