1
31%
Home Win
3.25
X
28%
Draw
3.53
2
41%
Away Win
2.44
xG Home
1.04
xG Away
1.24
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS
46%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Vitoria an expected 1.0 goals and Gremio an expected 1.2 goals. Vitoria have a 31% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Gremio at 41%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 60%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
13.2%
0:1
12.7%
1:0
10.6%
0:0
10.2%
1:2
8.2%
0:2
7.9%
2:1
6.8%
2:0
5.5%
2:2
4.2%
1:3
3.4%
0:3
3.3%
3:1
2.4%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Gremio Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 41% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.44 |
| Market Odds | 2.59 |
Team Comparison
| Vitoria | Gremio | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | League Position | 9 |
| 45 | Points | 49 |
| 29% | Win % | 34% |
| 0.92 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.24 |
| 1.37 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.32 |
Venue Form
Vitoria at Home
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Gremio Away
W0
D1
L2
(3 games)
Recent Form
Vitoria
W
D
Gremio
L
D
L
