1
40%
Home Win
2.5
X
26%
Draw
3.92
2
34%
Away Win
2.91
xG Home
1.43
xG Away
1.31
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS
56%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Vasco DA Gama an expected 1.4 goals and Atletico-MG an expected 1.3 goals. Vasco DA Gama have a 40% win probability, draw stands at 26%, and Atletico-MG at 34%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 52%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.1%
1:0
9.2%
2:1
8.7%
0:1
8.4%
1:2
7.9%
2:0
6.6%
0:0
6.4%
2:2
5.7%
0:2
5.5%
3:1
4.1%
1:3
3.5%
3:0
3.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Atletico-MG Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Vasco DA Gama | Atletico-MG | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | League Position | 11 |
| 45 | Points | 48 |
| 34% | Win % | 32% |
| 1.45 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.13 |
| 1.58 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.16 |
Venue Form
Vasco DA Gama at Home
W2
D0
L2
(4 games)
Atletico-MG Away
W2
D1
L1
(4 games)
Recent Form
Vasco DA Gama
L
W
W
L
Atletico-MG
W
W
L
D
Head to Head
Atletico-MG
5 : 0
Vasco DA Gama
L
Vasco DA Gama
1 : 1
Atletico-MG
D
Vasco DA Gama
2 : 0
Atletico-MG
L