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Botafogo vs Atletico-MG — Prediction

Botafogo Botafogo
1 – 0
Most likely score (model)
Thu, 05 Nov 2026 · Brasileirão
Open Match Centre
Score · Lineups · Live stats
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG

Match information

Scheduled
Kickoff
5 Nov 2026, 00:30 UTC
Competition
Brasileirão
Previous matches

All competitions; results strictly before this fixture. The recorded score may include extra time; shootout goals are not added.

Botafogo
  • Remo 2–1 Botafogo
  • Internacional 3–0 Botafogo
  • Mirassol 2–0 Botafogo
  • Botafogo 0–0 Palmeiras
  • Botafogo 1–1 Santos
Atletico-MG
  • Atletico-MG 0–1 Cruzeiro
  • Flamengo 3–2 Atletico-MG
  • Atletico-MG 1–1 Chapecoense
  • Atletico-MG 0–0 Fluminense
  • São Paulo FC 2–0 Atletico-MG
Model & data

Table-based model estimate

Matches in saved table: Botafogo 38 · Atletico-MG 38. Data saved: 2026-11-03 23:30 UTC.

Table season: 2025

This Poisson estimate uses goals scored and conceded per game in the saved league table. Home advantage is 1.08; goal rates are limited to 0.3–5.0.

Model goal expectation is not measured shot-based xG. Injuries, confirmed lineups and live match state are not inputs to this calculation.

Assessment recorded before kickoff: Botafogo 53% · 2026-11-04 00:10 UTC.

An estimate is not a guarantee of the result.

Lineups, events, odds and statistics depend on provider coverage. Missing data is not a zero value.

1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ

Model goal expectation · 1 1.51
Model goal expectation · 2 0.83
Over 2.5 Goals 42%
BTTS 44%

Table-based model estimate

Model goal expectation: Botafogo 1.51 · Atletico-MG 0.83.
1 53% · X 26% · 2 21%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:0 14.5%
1:1 12.1%
2:0 11%
0:0 9.6%
2:1 9.1%
0:1 8%
3:0 5.5%
1:2 5%
3:1 4.6%
2:2 3.8%
0:2 3.3%
4:0 2.1%

About this assessment

Model outcome Botafogo Win
Probability 53%
Predicted Odds 1.89

Team Comparison

Botafogo Atletico-MG
6 League Position 11
63 Points 48
45% Win % 32%
1.53 Avg Goals Scored 1.13
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.16

Venue Form

Botafogo at Home
W0 D2 L0 (2 games)
0% win rate
Atletico-MG Away
W0 D0 L2 (2 games)
0% win rate

Recent Form

Botafogo
L L L D D
Atletico-MG
L L D D L

Head to Head

10 May 2026 brasileirao
Atletico-MG 0 : 0 Botafogo
D

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