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Flamengo vs Gremio — Prediction

Flamengo Flamengo
2 – 0
Most likely score (model)
Wed, 04 Nov 2026 · Brasileirão
Open Match Centre
Score · Lineups · Live stats
Gremio Gremio

Match information

Scheduled
Kickoff
4 Nov 2026, 22:30 UTC
Competition
Brasileirão
Previous matches

All competitions; results strictly before this fixture. The recorded score may include extra time; shootout goals are not added.

Flamengo
  • Vasco DA Gama 1–2 Flamengo
  • Flamengo 3–2 Atletico-MG
  • Flamengo 2–1 RB Bragantino
  • Flamengo 1–1 Independiente del Valle
  • Flamengo 2–1 Corinthians
Gremio
  • Gremio 2–0 Athletico Paranaense
  • Coritiba 0–1 Gremio
  • Gremio 2–4 Cruzeiro
  • Gremio 0–0 Palmeiras
  • Gremio 1–0 Vasco DA Gama
Model & data

Table-based model estimate

Matches in saved table: Flamengo 38 · Gremio 38. Data saved: 2026-11-03 23:30 UTC.

Table season: 2025

This Poisson estimate uses goals scored and conceded per game in the saved league table. Home advantage is 1.08; goal rates are limited to 0.3–5.0.

Model goal expectation is not measured shot-based xG. Injuries, confirmed lineups and live match state are not inputs to this calculation.

Assessment recorded before kickoff: Flamengo 63% · 2026-11-03 22:40 UTC.

An estimate is not a guarantee of the result.

Lineups, events, odds and statistics depend on provider coverage. Missing data is not a zero value.

1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ

Model goal expectation · 1 2.31
Model goal expectation · 2 0.64
Over 2.5 Goals 57%
BTTS 43%

Table-based model estimate

Model goal expectation: Flamengo 2.31 · Gremio 0.64.
1 75% · X 16% · 2 9%.

Correct Score Predictions

2:0 13.9%
1:0 12%
3:0 10.7%
2:1 9%
1:1 7.8%
3:1 6.9%
4:0 6.2%
0:0 5.2%
4:1 4%
0:1 3.4%
2:2 2.9%
1:2 2.5%

About this assessment

Model outcome Flamengo Win
Probability 75%
Predicted Odds 1.33

Team Comparison

Flamengo Gremio
1 League Position 9
79 Points 49
61% Win % 34%
2.05 Avg Goals Scored 1.24
0.71 Avg Goals Conceded 1.32

Venue Form

Flamengo at Home
W3 D1 L0 (4 games)
75% win rate
Gremio Away
W1 D0 L0 (1 games)
100% win rate

Recent Form

Flamengo
W W W D W
Gremio
W W L D W

Head to Head

10 May 2026 brasileirao
Gremio 0 : 1 Flamengo
W

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