Toulouse vs Lyon Prediction

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1 – 1
Most Likely Score
Sat, 22 Aug 2026 · Ligue 1
1 34%
Home Win 2.97
X 26%
Draw 3.83
2 40%
Away Win 2.49
xG Home 1.25
xG Away 1.38
Over 2.5 Goals 49%
BTTS 53%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives Toulouse an expected 1.2 goals and Lyon an expected 1.4 goals. Toulouse have a 34% win probability, draw stands at 26%, and Lyon at 40%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 51%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:1 12.4%
0:1 10%
1:0 9%
1:2 8.6%
2:1 7.7%
0:0 7.2%
0:2 6.9%
2:0 5.6%
2:2 5.4%
1:3 4%
3:1 3.2%
0:3 3.2%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick Lyon Win
Probability 40%
Predicted Odds 2.5
Market Odds 2.66

Team Comparison

Toulouse Lyon
9 League Position 4
45 Points 60
35% Win % 53%
1.38 Avg Goals Scored 1.56
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 1.18

Venue Form

Toulouse at Home
W1 D2 L0 (3 games)
33% win rate
Lyon Away
W1 D0 L2 (3 games)
33% win rate

Recent Form

Toulouse
W D D
Lyon
L W L

Head to Head

10 May 2026 Ligue 1
Toulouse 2 : 1 Lyon
W
05 Oct 2025 Ligue 1
Lyon 1 : 2 Toulouse
W
18 Jan 2025 Ligue 1
Lyon 0 : 0 Toulouse
D