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Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes — Prediction

2 – 0
Most likely score (model)
Sat, 07 Nov 2026 · Ligue 1
Open Match Centre
Score · Lineups · Live stats

Match information

Scheduled
Kickoff
7 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC
Competition
Ligue 1
Previous matches

All competitions; results strictly before this fixture. The recorded score may include extra time; shootout goals are not added.

Paris Saint Germain
  • Villarreal 0–6 Paris Saint Germain
  • LE Havre AC 1–5 Paris Saint Germain
  • Paris Saint Germain 2–0 Lyon
  • Strasbourg 1–3 Paris Saint Germain
  • Marseille 0–0 Paris Saint Germain
Estac Troyes
  • Estac Troyes 2–0 Le Mans
  • Toulouse 0–0 Estac Troyes
  • Estac Troyes 1–3 Lens
  • Angers 2–0 Estac Troyes
  • Lille 2–0 Estac Troyes
Model & data

Table-based model estimate

Matches in saved table: Paris Saint Germain 9 · Estac Troyes 9. Data saved: 2026-11-05 14:40 UTC.

Table season: 2026

This Poisson estimate uses goals scored and conceded per game in the saved league table. Home advantage is 1.08; goal rates are limited to 0.3–5.0.

Model goal expectation is not measured shot-based xG. Injuries, confirmed lineups and live match state are not inputs to this calculation.

Assessment recorded before kickoff: Paris Saint Germain 77% · 2026-11-06 00:20 UTC.

An estimate is not a guarantee of the result.

Lineups, events, odds and statistics depend on provider coverage. Missing data is not a zero value.

1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ

Model goal expectation · 1 2.95
Model goal expectation · 2 0.53
Over 2.5 Goals 67%
BTTS 39%

Table-based model estimate

Model goal expectation: Paris Saint Germain 2.95 · Estac Troyes 0.53.
1 86% · X 10% · 2 4%.

Correct Score Predictions

2:0 13.4%
3:0 13.2%
4:0 9.8%
1:0 9.1%
2:1 7.1%
3:1 7%
4:1 5.1%
1:1 4.8%
0:0 3.1%
2:2 1.9%
3:2 1.8%
0:1 1.6%

About this assessment

Model outcome Paris Saint Germain Win
Probability 86%
Predicted Odds 1.16

Team Comparison

Paris Saint Germain Estac Troyes
1 League Position 16
20 Points 8
67% Win % 22%
2.33 Avg Goals Scored 0.78
1.11 Avg Goals Conceded 1.78

Venue Form

Paris Saint Germain at Home
W1 D0 L0 (1 games)
100% win rate
Estac Troyes Away
W0 D1 L2 (3 games)
0% win rate

Recent Form

Paris Saint Germain
W W W W D
Estac Troyes
W D L L L

Read the forecast alongside the match

A practical guide to the information shown here.

01

Read the selected market

A match-winner selection and a goal total answer different questions. Read the outcome before comparing percentages.

02

Check the recording time

A saved estimate belongs to its recording time. Check kickoff and the available match context separately.

03

Inspect comparable outcomes

Use a defined period, sample and market when comparing results. A probability is not a historical hit rate.

Inspect the prediction record →

Continue the match analysis

Useful next steps within VARiM.

Questions about this context

Answers to help interpret the available information.

Are these probabilities a guarantee?

No. A probability describes a model estimate for a particular selection and recording time; the actual match can finish differently.

Why might this page have no related saved forecasts?

Only relevant fixtures with a verified saved record are shown. The match and prediction catalogues may contain other available information.