1
38%
Home Win
2.61
X
29%
Draw
3.49
2
33%
Away Win
3.03
xG Home
1.18
xG Away
1.07
Over 2.5 Goals
39%
BTTS
46%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Stoke City an expected 1.2 goals and Swansea an expected 1.1 goals. Stoke City have a 38% win probability, draw stands at 29%, and Swansea at 33%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 61%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
13.3%
1:0
12.4%
0:1
11.3%
0:0
10.5%
2:1
7.8%
2:0
7.3%
1:2
7.1%
0:2
6.1%
2:2
4.2%
3:1
3.1%
3:0
2.9%
1:3
2.6%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Stoke City Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 38% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.63 |
| Market Odds | 2.8 |
Team Comparison
| Stoke City | Swansea | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | League Position | 11 |
| 55 | Points | 64 |
| 33% | Win % | 39% |
| 1.11 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.24 |
| 1.22 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.28 |
Venue Form
Stoke City at Home
W0
D0
L2
(2 games)
Swansea Away
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Stoke City
L
L
Swansea
D
W
L
