Sporting CP vs Guimaraes Prediction

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3 – 0
Most Likely Score
Fri, 14 Aug 2026 · Primeira Liga
1 87%
Home Win 1.15
X 9%
Draw 11.1
2 4%
Away Win 26.74
xG Home 3.16
xG Away 0.56
Over 2.5 Goals 71%
BTTS 41%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives Sporting CP an expected 3.2 goals and Guimaraes an expected 0.6 goals. Sporting CP have a 87% win probability, draw stands at 9%, and Guimaraes at 4%. The most likely exact scoreline is 3–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 71%.

Correct Score Predictions

3:0 12.8%
2:0 12.1%
4:0 10.1%
1:0 7.7%
3:1 7.1%
2:1 6.8%
4:1 5.6%
1:1 4.3%
0:0 2.4%
3:2 2%
2:2 1.9%
4:2 1.6%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick Sporting CP Win
Probability 87%
Predicted Odds 1.15
Market Odds 1.22

Team Comparison

Sporting CP Guimaraes
2 League Position 9
82 Points 42
74% Win % 35%
2.62 Avg Goals Scored 1.15
0.71 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5

Venue Form

Sporting CP at Home
W1 D1 L1 (3 games)
33% win rate
Guimaraes Away
W2 D0 L1 (3 games)
67% win rate

Recent Form

Sporting CP
W D L
Guimaraes
L W W

Head to Head

04 May 2026 Primeira Liga
Sporting CP 4 : 0 Guimaraes
W
06 Jan 2026 Taça da Liga
Sporting CP 1 : 2 Guimaraes
L
23 Dec 2025 Primeira Liga
Guimaraes 1 : 4 Sporting CP
W