1
89%
Home Win
1.12
X
6%
Draw
17.04
2
3%
Away Win
38.46
xG Home
3.97
xG Away
0.67
Over 2.5 Goals
82%
BTTS
47%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Sporting CP an expected 4.0 goals and Arouca an expected 0.7 goals. Sporting CP have a 89% win probability, draw stands at 6%, and Arouca at 3%. The most likely exact scoreline is 3–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 82%.
Correct Score Predictions
3:0
10%
4:0
10%
2:0
7.6%
3:1
6.8%
4:1
6.7%
2:1
5.1%
1:0
3.8%
1:1
2.6%
3:2
2.3%
4:2
2.3%
2:2
1.7%
0:0
1%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Sporting CP Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 89% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.12 |
| Market Odds | 1.2 |
Team Comparison
| Sporting CP | Arouca | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | League Position | 8 |
| 82 | Points | 42 |
| 74% | Win % | 35% |
| 2.62 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.38 |
| 0.71 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.88 |
Venue Form
Sporting CP at Home
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Arouca Away
W1
D1
L2
(4 games)
Recent Form
Sporting CP
W
D
L
Arouca
D
W
L
L
