1
57%
Home Win
1.75
X
23%
Draw
4.35
2
20%
Away Win
5.03
xG Home
1.80
xG Away
0.96
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS
51%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Southampton an expected 1.8 goals and Stoke City an expected 1.0 goals. Southampton have a 57% win probability, draw stands at 23%, and Stoke City at 20%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 52%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
11.4%
1:1
10.9%
2:0
10.3%
2:1
9.8%
0:0
6.3%
3:0
6.2%
0:1
6.1%
3:1
5.9%
1:2
5.2%
2:2
4.7%
0:2
2.9%
3:2
2.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Southampton Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 57% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.75 |
| Market Odds | 1.87 |
Team Comparison
| Southampton | Stoke City | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | League Position | 17 |
| 80 | Points | 55 |
| 48% | Win % | 33% |
| 1.78 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.11 |
| 1.22 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.22 |
Venue Form
Southampton at Home
W1
D2
L0
(3 games)
Stoke City Away
W0
D0
L2
(2 games)
Recent Form
Southampton
W
D
D
Stoke City
L
L
