1
38%
Home Win
2.66
X
30%
Draw
3.39
2
33%
Away Win
3.04
xG Home
1.12
xG Away
1.03
Over 2.5 Goals
36%
BTTS
43%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives São Paulo FC an expected 1.1 goals and Atletico-MG an expected 1.0 goals. São Paulo FC have a 38% win probability, draw stands at 30%, and Atletico-MG at 33%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 64%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
13.4%
1:0
13.1%
0:1
12%
0:0
11.7%
2:1
7.5%
2:0
7.3%
1:2
6.9%
0:2
6.2%
2:2
3.9%
3:1
2.8%
3:0
2.7%
1:3
2.4%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | São Paulo FC Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 38% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.63 |
| Market Odds | 2.8 |
Team Comparison
| São Paulo FC | Atletico-MG | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | League Position | 11 |
| 51 | Points | 48 |
| 37% | Win % | 32% |
| 1.13 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.13 |
| 1.24 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.16 |
Venue Form
São Paulo FC at Home
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Atletico-MG Away
W2
D1
L1
(4 games)
Recent Form
São Paulo FC
D
W
Atletico-MG
W
W
L
D
