1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ
xG Home
1.23
xG Away
1.27
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS
51%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Santos an expected 1.2 goals and Bahia an expected 1.3 goals. Santos have a 35% win probability, draw stands at 27%, and Bahia at 38%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 54%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.8%
0:1
10.5%
1:0
10.1%
0:0
8.2%
1:2
8.1%
2:1
7.9%
0:2
6.6%
2:0
6.2%
2:2
5%
1:3
3.5%
3:1
3.2%
0:3
2.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Bahia Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 38% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.63 |
| Market Odds | 2.8 |
Team Comparison
| Santos | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | League Position | 7 |
| 47 | Points | 60 |
| 32% | Win % | 45% |
| 1.18 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.32 |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.21 |
Venue Form
Santos at Home
W1
D2
L1
(4 games)
Bahia Away
W0
D2
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Santos
D
D
W
L
Bahia
D
D
L
