1
37%
Home Win
2.72
X
32%
Draw
3.16
2
32%
Away Win
3.17
xG Home
1.00
xG Away
0.91
Over 2.5 Goals
30%
BTTS
38%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Santa Clara an expected 1.0 goals and Nacional an expected 0.9 goals. Santa Clara have a 37% win probability, draw stands at 32%, and Nacional at 32%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 70%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
14.9%
0:0
14.8%
1:1
13.5%
0:1
13.4%
2:0
7.5%
2:1
6.8%
1:2
6.1%
0:2
6.1%
2:2
3.1%
3:0
2.5%
3:1
2.3%
1:3
1.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Santa Clara Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 37% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.7 |
| Market Odds | 2.88 |
Team Comparison
| Santa Clara | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | League Position | 14 |
| 36 | Points | 34 |
| 26% | Win % | 26% |
| 0.94 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.09 |
| 1.21 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.32 |
Venue Form
Santa Clara at Home
W3
D0
L0
(3 games)
Nacional Away
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Santa Clara
W
W
W
Nacional
L
W
