Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus Prediction

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1 – 0
Most Likely Score
Sat, 23 May 2026 · J1 League
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus
1 60%
Home Win 1.66
X 25%
Draw 4.06
2 15%
Away Win 6.64
xG Home 1.61
xG Away 0.66
Over 2.5 Goals 40%
BTTS 39%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives Sanfrecce Hiroshima an expected 1.6 goals and Nagoya Grampus an expected 0.7 goals. Sanfrecce Hiroshima have a 60% win probability, draw stands at 25%, and Nagoya Grampus at 15%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 61%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:0 16.7%
2:0 13.4%
1:1 11%
0:0 10.4%
2:1 8.8%
3:0 7.2%
0:1 6.8%
3:1 4.7%
1:2 3.6%
2:2 2.9%
4:0 2.9%
0:2 2.3%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick Nagoya Grampus Win
Probability 45%
Predicted Odds 2.22
Market Odds 2.36

Team Comparison

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Nagoya Grampus
4 League Position 16
68 Points 43
53% Win % 29%
1.21 Avg Goals Scored 1.16
0.74 Avg Goals Conceded 1.47

Venue Form

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at Home
W3 D1 L0 (4 games)
75% win rate
Nagoya Grampus Away
W2 D0 L1 (3 games)
67% win rate

Recent Form

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
W D W W
Nagoya Grampus
W W L

Head to Head

18 Mar 2026 J1 League
Nagoya Grampus 2 : 1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
L
27 Aug 2025 Emperor Cup
Nagoya Grampus 2 : 4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
W
28 Jun 2025 J1 League
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1 : 2 Nagoya Grampus
W