Rennes FC vs Marseille Prediction

1 – 1
Most Likely Score
Fri, 11 Sep 2026 · Ligue 1
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Score · Lineups · Live stats

1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ

xG Home 1.75
xG Away 1.78
Over 2.5 Goals 69%
BTTS 69%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives Rennes FC an expected 1.8 goals and Marseille an expected 1.8 goals. Rennes FC have a 38% win probability, draw stands at 22%, and Marseille at 40%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 69%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:1 9.1%
1:2 8.1%
2:1 8%
2:2 7.1%
0:1 5.2%
1:0 5.1%
1:3 4.8%
3:1 4.7%
0:2 4.6%
2:0 4.5%
2:3 4.2%
3:2 4.2%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick Marseille Win
Probability 40%
Predicted Odds 2.5
Market Odds 2.66

Team Comparison

Rennes FC Marseille
6 League Position 5
59 Points 59
50% Win % 53%
1.74 Avg Goals Scored 1.85
1.47 Avg Goals Conceded 1.32

Venue Form

Rennes FC at Home
W4 D0 L0 (4 games)
100% win rate
Marseille Away
W1 D0 L2 (3 games)
33% win rate

Recent Form

Rennes FC
W W W W
Marseille
W L L