1
30%
Home Win
3.37
X
26%
Draw
3.82
2
44%
Away Win
2.27
xG Home
1.13
xG Away
1.44
Over 2.5 Goals
47%
BTTS
52%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Portsmouth FC an expected 1.1 goals and Derby an expected 1.4 goals. Portsmouth FC have a 30% win probability, draw stands at 26%, and Derby at 44%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 53%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.4%
0:1
11%
1:2
9%
1:0
8.6%
0:2
7.9%
0:0
7.6%
2:1
7.1%
2:2
5.1%
2:0
4.9%
1:3
4.3%
0:3
3.8%
3:1
2.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Derby Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 44% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.27 |
| Market Odds | 2.42 |
Team Comparison
| Portsmouth FC | Derby | |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | League Position | 8 |
| 55 | Points | 69 |
| 30% | Win % | 43% |
| 1.07 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.46 |
| 1.39 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.28 |
Venue Form
Portsmouth FC at Home
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Derby Away
W2
D0
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Portsmouth FC
D
W
Derby
W
L
W
