1
64%
Home Win
1.56
X
22%
Draw
4.56
2
14%
Away Win
7.12
xG Home
1.84
xG Away
0.72
Over 2.5 Goals
47%
BTTS
43%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Palmeiras an expected 1.8 goals and São Paulo FC an expected 0.7 goals. Palmeiras have a 64% win probability, draw stands at 22%, and São Paulo FC at 14%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 53%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
14.2%
2:0
13.1%
1:1
10.3%
2:1
9.4%
3:0
8%
0:0
7.7%
3:1
5.8%
0:1
5.6%
1:2
3.7%
4:0
3.7%
2:2
3.4%
4:1
2.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Palmeiras Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 64% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.56 |
| Market Odds | 1.66 |
Team Comparison
| Palmeiras | São Paulo FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | League Position | 8 |
| 76 | Points | 51 |
| 61% | Win % | 37% |
| 1.74 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.13 |
| 0.87 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.24 |
Venue Form
Palmeiras at Home
W2
D1
L0
(3 games)
São Paulo FC Away
W0
D2
L2
(4 games)
Recent Form
Palmeiras
W
D
W
São Paulo FC
L
L
D
D
