1
24%
Home Win
4.13
X
31%
Draw
3.2
2
45%
Away Win
2.24
xG Home
0.75
xG Away
1.13
Over 2.5 Goals
29%
BTTS
36%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Nacional an expected 0.7 goals and Famalicao an expected 1.1 goals. Nacional have a 24% win probability, draw stands at 31%, and Famalicao at 45%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 71%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:1
17.3%
0:0
15.3%
1:1
12.9%
1:0
11.5%
0:2
9.8%
1:2
7.3%
2:1
4.8%
2:0
4.3%
0:3
3.7%
1:3
2.7%
2:2
2.7%
3:1
1.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Famalicao Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Nacional | Famalicao | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | League Position | 5 |
| 34 | Points | 56 |
| 26% | Win % | 44% |
| 1.09 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.24 |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.85 |
Venue Form
Nacional at Home
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Famalicao Away
W1
D2
L0
(3 games)
Recent Form
Nacional
L
W
Famalicao
D
W
D
