1
47%
Home Win
2.14
X
26%
Draw
3.78
2
27%
Away Win
3.74
xG Home
1.44
xG Away
1.02
Over 2.5 Goals
45%
BTTS
49%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Nacional an expected 1.4 goals and Estrela da Amadora an expected 1.0 goals. Nacional have a 47% win probability, draw stands at 26%, and Estrela da Amadora at 27%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 55%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.5%
1:0
12.3%
2:1
9%
2:0
8.9%
0:1
8.7%
0:0
8.5%
1:2
6.4%
2:2
4.6%
0:2
4.4%
3:1
4.4%
3:0
4.3%
3:2
2.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Nacional Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 47% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.13 |
| Market Odds | 2.26 |
Team Comparison
| Nacional | Estrela da Amadora | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | League Position | 15 |
| 34 | Points | 30 |
| 26% | Win % | 18% |
| 1.09 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.12 |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.65 |
Venue Form
Nacional at Home
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Estrela da Amadora Away
W0
D0
L2
(2 games)
Recent Form
Nacional
L
W
Estrela da Amadora
L
L
