1
38%
Home Win
2.63
X
25%
Draw
4.05
2
37%
Away Win
2.68
xG Home
1.47
xG Away
1.45
Over 2.5 Goals
56%
BTTS
59%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Nacional an expected 1.5 goals and Estoril an expected 1.5 goals. Nacional have a 38% win probability, draw stands at 25%, and Estoril at 37%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 56%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11.5%
2:1
8.4%
1:2
8.3%
1:0
7.9%
0:1
7.8%
2:2
6.1%
2:0
5.8%
0:2
5.7%
0:0
5.4%
3:1
4.1%
1:3
4%
3:2
3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Nacional Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 38% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.63 |
| Market Odds | 2.8 |
Team Comparison
| Nacional | Estoril | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | League Position | 10 |
| 34 | Points | 39 |
| 26% | Win % | 29% |
| 1.09 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.59 |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.68 |
Venue Form
Nacional at Home
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Estoril Away
W0
D2
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Nacional
L
W
Estoril
D
D
L
