1
59%
Home Win
1.69
X
22%
Draw
4.49
2
18%
Away Win
5.44
xG Home
1.87
xG Away
0.93
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS
51%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Mirassol an expected 1.9 goals and Gremio an expected 0.9 goals. Mirassol have a 59% win probability, draw stands at 22%, and Gremio at 18%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 53%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
11.4%
2:0
10.6%
1:1
10.6%
2:1
9.9%
3:0
6.6%
3:1
6.2%
0:0
6.1%
0:1
5.7%
1:2
4.9%
2:2
4.6%
4:0
3.1%
4:1
2.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Mirassol Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Mirassol | Gremio | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | League Position | 9 |
| 67 | Points | 49 |
| 47% | Win % | 34% |
| 1.66 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.24 |
| 1.03 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.32 |
Venue Form
Mirassol at Home
W2
D2
L0
(4 games)
Gremio Away
W0
D1
L2
(3 games)
Recent Form
Mirassol
W
D
W
D
Gremio
L
D
L
Head to Head
Gremio
0 : 1
Mirassol
W
Mirassol
4 : 1
Gremio
L
Mirassol
3 : 2
Gremio
L
