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Marseille vs Toulouse — Prediction

Marseille Marseille
2 – 1
Most likely score (model)
Sun, 01 Nov 2026 · Ligue 1
Open Match Centre
Score · Lineups · Live stats
Toulouse Toulouse

Match information

Scheduled
Kickoff
1 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC
Competition
Ligue 1
Previous matches

All competitions; results strictly before this fixture. The recorded score may include extra time; shootout goals are not added.

Marseille
  • Marseille 4–3 LE Havre AC
  • Marseille 0–0 Paris Saint Germain
  • Rennes FC 1–0 Marseille
  • Marseille 2–3 Paris FC
  • LE Havre AC 0–1 Marseille
Toulouse
  • Toulouse 0–0 Estac Troyes
  • Toulouse 3–2 LE Havre AC
  • Lorient 0–0 Toulouse
  • Toulouse 2–1 Lyon
  • Strasbourg 1–2 Toulouse
Model & data

Table-based model estimate

Matches in saved table: Marseille 8 · Toulouse 8. Data saved: 2026-10-31 00:00 UTC.

Table season: 2026

This Poisson estimate uses goals scored and conceded per game in the saved league table. Home advantage is 1.08; goal rates are limited to 0.3–5.0.

Model goal expectation is not measured shot-based xG. Injuries, confirmed lineups and live match state are not inputs to this calculation.

Assessment recorded before kickoff: Marseille 62% · 2026-10-31 10:20 UTC.

An estimate is not a guarantee of the result.

Lineups, events, odds and statistics depend on provider coverage. Missing data is not a zero value.

1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ

1 54%
Home Win 1.86
X 20%
Draw 4.9
2 26%
Away Win 3.89
Model goal expectation · 1 2.20
Model goal expectation · 2 1.48
Over 2.5 Goals 71%
BTTS 69%

Table-based model estimate

Model goal expectation: Marseille 2.20 · Toulouse 1.48.
1 54% · X 20% · 2 26%.

Correct Score Predictions

2:1 9%
1:1 8.2%
2:2 6.7%
3:1 6.6%
1:2 6.1%
2:0 6.1%
1:0 5.5%
3:2 4.9%
3:0 4.5%
0:1 3.7%
4:1 3.6%
2:3 3.3%

About this assessment

Model outcome Marseille Win
Probability 54%
Predicted Odds 1.85

Team Comparison

Marseille Toulouse
9 League Position 11
12 Points 10
50% Win % 25%
2.25 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
1.63 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38

Venue Form

Marseille at Home
W1 D1 L1 (3 games)
33% win rate
Toulouse Away
W1 D1 L0 (2 games)
50% win rate

Recent Form

Marseille
W D L L W
Toulouse
D W D W W

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Sun 01 Nov Tip: 1 · 36%
Strasbourg vs Auxerre
Sun 01 Nov Tip: 1 · 47%