1
46%
Home Win
2.19
X
26%
Draw
3.8
2
28%
Away Win
3.57
xG Home
1.45
xG Away
1.07
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS
50%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Marítimo an expected 1.4 goals and Casa Pia AC an expected 1.1 goals. Marítimo have a 46% win probability, draw stands at 26%, and Casa Pia AC at 28%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 54%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.5%
1:0
11.6%
2:1
9%
0:1
8.6%
2:0
8.4%
0:0
8%
1:2
6.7%
2:2
4.9%
0:2
4.6%
3:1
4.4%
3:0
4.1%
1:3
2.4%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Marítimo Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 46% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.17 |
| Market Odds | 2.31 |
Venue Form
Casa Pia AC Away
W1
D0
L2
(3 games)
Recent Form
Casa Pia AC
W
L
L
