1
24%
Home Win
4.19
X
22%
Draw
4.48
2
54%
Away Win
1.86
xG Home
1.20
xG Away
1.90
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS
59%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Liverpool an expected 1.2 goals and Manchester City an expected 1.9 goals. Liverpool have a 24% win probability, draw stands at 22%, and Manchester City at 54%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 60%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
10.3%
1:2
9.8%
0:1
8.6%
0:2
8.1%
1:3
6.2%
2:1
6.2%
2:2
5.9%
1:0
5.4%
0:3
5.2%
0:0
4.5%
2:3
3.7%
2:0
3.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Manchester City Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 54% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.85 |
| Market Odds | 1.97 |
Team Comparison
| Liverpool | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | League Position | 2 |
| 60 | Points | 78 |
| 45% | Win % | 61% |
| 1.66 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.03 |
| 1.39 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.92 |
Venue Form
Liverpool at Home
W1
D2
L0
(3 games)
Manchester City Away
W3
D1
L0
(4 games)
Recent Form
Liverpool
D
D
W
Manchester City
W
D
W
W
