1
73%
Home Win
1.37
X
18%
Draw
5.65
2
9%
Away Win
10.86
xG Home
2.16
xG Away
0.62
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS
41%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Arsenal an expected 2.2 goals and Leeds an expected 0.6 goals. Arsenal have a 73% win probability, draw stands at 18%, and Leeds at 9%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 53%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:0
14.5%
1:0
13.4%
3:0
10.5%
2:1
9%
1:1
8.3%
3:1
6.5%
0:0
6.2%
4:0
5.7%
0:1
3.8%
4:1
3.5%
2:2
2.8%
1:2
2.6%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Arsenal Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 73% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.37 |
| Market Odds | 1.46 |
Team Comparison
| Arsenal | Leeds | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 14 |
| 85 | Points | 47 |
| 68% | Win % | 29% |
| 1.87 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.29 |
| 0.71 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.47 |
Venue Form
Arsenal at Home
W4
D0
L1
(5 games)
Leeds Away
W0
D3
L0
(3 games)
Recent Form
Arsenal
W
W
W
W
L
Leeds
D
D
D
