1
45%
Home Win
2.24
X
24%
Draw
4.25
2
32%
Away Win
3.14
xG Home
1.70
xG Away
1.41
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS
62%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Chelsea an expected 1.7 goals and Bournemouth an expected 1.4 goals. Chelsea have a 45% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Bournemouth at 32%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 60%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
10.7%
2:1
9.1%
1:0
7.6%
1:2
7.5%
2:0
6.5%
2:2
6.4%
0:1
6.3%
3:1
5.2%
0:0
4.5%
0:2
4.4%
3:0
3.7%
3:2
3.6%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Chelsea Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Chelsea | Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | League Position | 6 |
| 52 | Points | 57 |
| 37% | Win % | 34% |
| 1.53 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.53 |
| 1.37 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.42 |
Venue Form
Chelsea at Home
W1
D1
L2
(4 games)
Bournemouth Away
W2
D1
L0
(3 games)
Recent Form
Chelsea
D
L
L
W
Bournemouth
D
W
W
