1
45%
Home Win
2.22
X
25%
Draw
4.05
2
30%
Away Win
3.3
xG Home
1.58
xG Away
1.26
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
BTTS
57%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Aston Villa an expected 1.6 goals and Brentford an expected 1.3 goals. Aston Villa have a 45% win probability, draw stands at 25%, and Brentford at 30%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 54%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11.6%
1:0
9.2%
2:1
9.2%
0:1
7.3%
2:0
7.3%
1:2
7.3%
0:0
5.8%
2:2
5.8%
3:1
4.9%
0:2
4.6%
3:0
3.9%
1:3
3.1%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Aston Villa Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Aston Villa | Brentford | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | League Position | 9 |
| 65 | Points | 53 |
| 50% | Win % | 37% |
| 1.47 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.45 |
| 1.29 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.37 |
Venue Form
Aston Villa at Home
W2
D0
L2
(4 games)
Brentford Away
W0
D1
L2
(3 games)
Recent Form
Aston Villa
L
W
L
W
Brentford
D
L
L
